Germany entered 2026 with three years of economic stagnation behind it, rising unemployment, industrial job losses and persistent shortages of skilled workers — all at once. This is the labour market Bärbel Bas has been responsible for since May 2025.
§ 01The data
All figures from the Federal Employment Agency’s monthly report of 30 September 2026 unless stated. Employment figures lag by one to two months.1
Reading the numbers. Registered unemployment hovered around the symbolic three-million mark through 2026, a level last seen a decade earlier; the autumn revival lowered it just below in September. More telling is the fall in employment: for the first time in many years, the number of people in work is shrinking year on year, driven mainly by job losses in manufacturing.
At the same time the Agency still counts hundreds of thousands of open vacancies and, in its 2025 bottleneck analysis, 157 occupations with skills shortages — mainly in nursing and health, construction, skilled trades, catering, road haulage and childcare.2 Germany therefore has rising unemployment and a shortage of workers simultaneously: a mismatch of skills, regions and occupations rather than a simple lack of jobs.
§ 02 · Approach
Bas’s public statements and the government’s legislation since 2025 point to four lines of employment policy:
In the 2026 budget debate she put it in one sentence: “Die, die nicht mitmachen, müssen das auch merken” — “those who do not cooperate must also feel it.”3 In the 2027 budget debate she framed the goal as “gute Löhne, faire Arbeitsbedingungen und eine sichere Rente.”4
§ 03Fields of policy
On the recommendation of the independent Minimum Wage Commission (June 2025), the government raised the statutory minimum wage to €13.90 an hour from 1 January 2026 and to €14.60 from 1 January 2027 — a total increase of 13.9 per cent. According to the government, more than six million workers benefit.5
Since 2026, companies carrying out federal public contracts above €50,000 must pay their staff according to the relevant collective agreements. The Bundestag passed the law on 26 February 2026 with the votes of CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens.6 Details
Unemployment insurance pays benefit for a limited period and funds counselling, training and short-time work. In July 2026, 118,000 workers were on short-time work.1
The reform in force since 1 July 2026 prioritises placement into work and tightens sanctions. In September 2026, 3.7 million people were eligible for basic income support for job-seekers.1 Social security
The share of foreign workers in shortage occupations doubled from 7 per cent in 2014 to 14 per cent. In nursing, the number of German staff fell by 5,000 while foreign staff rose by 46,000.2
Launched in late 2023, the programme pushes refugees into work earlier, with language learning alongside employment. An evaluation by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) found monthly job-entry rates for Ukrainian refugees rose by 1.8 percentage points; effects for women were weaker.7
The ministry shares responsibility for the transition from school to work with the Education Ministry and the Länder. Education & skills
Since 1 January 2026, employees who work beyond the statutory retirement age can earn up to €2,000 a month tax-free. Pension policy
The 2026 basic income reform gives priority to placing under-30s into work or training, a choice criticised by some welfare associations who favour longer qualification.
Bas has linked the gender pay gap to collective bargaining: “Wo es Tarifverträge gibt, ist die Lohnlücke deutlich kleiner” — “where there are collective agreements, the pay gap is significantly smaller.”8
Before the Bundestag’s digital committee in March 2026 she said that by the end of the decade there would be no job in Germany untouched by artificial intelligence.9 Digital welfare state
Job losses in automotive, chemicals and steel are the main driver of falling employment. Short-time work and retraining are the labour-market instruments; industrial policy sits with the Economics Ministry.
§ 04 · Debate
Employers argue that rising labour costs — minimum wage, social contributions, bureaucracy — are part of Germany’s competitiveness problem, and reacted sharply to Bas’s remarks about employers at the Juso congress in November 2025.
Trade unions and welfare associations welcome the minimum wage and Tariftreue but oppose the tougher sanctions of the new basic income support.
The opposition attacks from both sides: the Greens and the Left criticise the sanctions; the AfD accuses the minister of ignoring migration into the benefit system — the background to its June 2026 motion for her dismissal, which the Bundestag rejected.